A recent study has shown that nothing is more decisive for economic growth than high-quality and equitable education. This extensive research led by Sarah Gust (ifo Institute), Eric Hanushek (Stanford University) and Ludger Woessmann (University of Munich) used a sample of 159 countries, covering 98% of the world's population and 99% of the world's GDP.
The researchers measured the proportion of students who failed to reach basic maths and science skills, per country. To do so, they used the latest available data from regional and international achievement tests —the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) — and data from alternative sources to assign values to non-participating countries.
The results suggest that the world has a long way to go to reach the goal of global universal basic skills. When accounting only for students who are currently attending school, 62% failed to achieve basic skills. However, this figure rises to 66% when accounting for school leavers: about two-thirds of the world's youth. This percentage varies widely between countries and regions, from 96% in low-income countries to three-quarters in high-income countries. Regionally, the percentage ranges from 24% in North America and 28% in Europe to 89% in South Asia and 94% in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Portugal, the percentage of 23% is in line with the European Union average (24%). However, these figures only refer to the pre-pandemic reality.
The authors used these estimates to forecast each country's economic gains if all youths achieved basic skills according to three different scenarios: 1) improving the quality of education only for students who are currently attending school; 2) ensuring all students attend school while maintaining the current levels of quality in education; and 3) integrating all students in a higher quality education system.
The simulation results indicate that attaining this goal would bring enormous economic gains, with the quality of education playing a critical role. According to projections based on historical long-term growth patterns, fully achieving universal basic skills, in the third scenario, would add 718 trillion dollars to the world's GDP until the end of the 21st century, which is more than five times the current world GDP per year. In the second scenario, where all students would attend school with the current education quality, the gains would amount to 176 trillion dollars.
Therefore, the world faces the dual problem of quality and access to education. These findings suggest that attending low-quality schools would not solve the deficit of basic skills. Moreover, solving the school quality problem would be no simple task. In essence, only acting on these two fronts would allow more youths to participate in the modern world economy actively.